Watts was the Jays most effective player

I was reading this blog today of this Florida Gator fan and he was talking about this fascinating theory of the “Win Score” and how your most effective players in garnering a win are not necessarily your highest scorer. It used a formula of the following:

(Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers – ½Free Throw Attempts – ½Personal Fouls) / Minutes = Win Score per Minute

Then you could also make some adjustments on what the expected Win Score per minute was based on which position the player played. So I thought I would take this theory and apply it to last season’s Jays team. I could see how this could be a good useful formula that takes into account all of the different stats of a player to show the effectiveness of the player while they are in the game, but there are also some flaws in this.

Using the above formula combined with the position expected score and the formula for Wins Produced, here were the best 5 players on the court:

Dane Watts-3.69
Nick Bahe-2.33
P’Allen Stinnett-2.11
Booker Woodfox-2.04
Kenny Lawson Jr.-1.98

If you really look at it, it does make a lot of sense. Senior leadership definitely shows up from looking at this. So even though Dane Watts didn’t appear to have a spectacular year, having him in the lineup was vital for the Jays. Really for the minutes that Nick Bahe was in, just watching myself I felt his minutes were quite effective. And of course we all know what in impact P’Allen and Booker made on the court. It was nice to see Kenny Lawson in the top 5 only because it seemed like when he was in the game he made a difference. There were a few games that I thought he should have gotten more minutes, but the team went small for some reason and he didn’t get some key minutes. A close sixth man was Casey Harriman.

However, what was troubling about this formula was at the bottom of the Win Score. Cavel Witter and Josh Dotzler were just above Aaron Brandt, Dustin Sitzman and Pierce Hibma. Now there is no denying that Cavel was huge down the stretch and really helped the Jays win some games they probably shouldn’t have. However, were they really the effective players that were needed to win games. You would expect your point guard to be the most effective player on the court. And really after reflecting after last season, the point guard play was part of the puzzle that kept the Jays from winning the games they needed to win to get into the NCAA Tournament. I would hope that these ratings go up for next season.  You can check the Win Score/Wins Produced below and see what you think.



Wins Produced


Bahe,Nick………. 2.326651
Stinnett,P’Allen… 2.112139
Woodfox,Booker….. 2.040383
Lawson Jr., Kenny 1.980031
Harriman,Casey….. 1.448664
Millard,Chad……. 0.623536
Walker,Kenton…… 0.408535
Korver,Kaleb……. 0.308515
Witter,Cavel……. 0.159884
Dotzler,Josh……. -0.00652
Brandt,Aaron……. -0.06475
Sitzmann,Dustin…. -0.08791
Hibma,Pierce……. -0.20999

One Response to Watts was the Jays most effective player

  1. […] Effectiveness Midseason Last summer, I fell in love with the Win Score stat and sort of messed around with it to see who the most effective Jays players were from the previous season.  This is where it […]

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