Player Effectiveness Midseason

Last summer, I fell in love with the Win Score stat and sort of messed around with it to see who the most effective Jays players were from the previous season.  This is where it takes into combination all of the players contributions whether it is points, steals, FG attempts, FG Makes, etc. and the formula spits out this “win score”

Formula:  (Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers – ½Free Throw Attempts – ½Personal Fouls) / Minutes = Win Score per Minute

Then if you make some adjustments to the win score  based on the position they play and per minute win score, you can get a total Win Score that shows how many games that player directly contributed in the win and sort of shows you who the players on the floor are the most effective for a team.

This is a really great tool and I think really told us a lot about last year’s team.  The only bad part is that some of the numbers involved are NBA skewed only because the NBA seems to use this Win Score a little more and the authors of this formula figured out things based on 48 minutes per game and expected Win Scores based on the average Win Scores of a few NBA seasons. Sometime when I have time, I may look to look at it from a College standpoint, but the numbers are still pretty accurate whether I use the 40 minute or 48 minute model.

Another tool for effectiveness is the +/- Chart that Creighton Athletics puts into the Game Notes for each game.  This is a comparison of the Bluejays’ points scored (plus) vs. their points allowed (minus) while a specific player is on the floor.  The only problem with that stat is that it just takes into account whether the score fluctuates enough for you to get positive or negative points, it doesn’t necessarily point that the player on the floor really contributed to that fluctuation.  For example, Cavel Witter can have 3 turnovers, but P’Allen Stinnett can have 9 points and let’s say those turnovers didn’t turn into any points for the other team and Cavel leaves the court.  Although he had those turnovers, he still gets a +9 along with P’Allen. Then Kaleb Korver, who didn’t do anything during the stint, leaves with a +9 as well (if they all came into the game at the same time and left at the same time.)  I don’t know if that really tells us anything.

So anyway, after that whole explanation, I thought I would show the two stats next to each other to see how things shake out so far midseason and you can determine what this means to you.

Win Score

Woodfox,Booker….. 5.293241
Carter,Justin…… 4.226047
Stinnett,P’Allen… 3.764586
Lawson, Kenny 3.030263
Dotzler,Josh……. 2.984109
Witter,Cavel……. 1.893257
Walker,Kenton…… 1.831816
Korver,Kaleb……. 1.382203
Harriman,Casey….. 0.547159
Millard,Chad……. 0.397209
Young,Antoine…… 0.064661
Sitzmann,Dustin…. -0.21257

+/- Chart

Woodfox,Booker….. +225
Stinnett,P’Allen… +148
Dotzler,Josh……. +138
Carter,Justin…… +135
Lawson, Jr., Kenny +129
Korver,Kaleb……. +32
Harriman,Casey….. +32
Walker,Kenton…… +30
Witter,Cavel……. +21
Millard,Chad……. +11
Sitzmann,Dustin…. -6
Young,Antoine…… -20

To me, the Win Score is more of an indicator of how the players have impacted the team and how effective they have been.  It makes sense that the starters are at the top of both lists with Booker Woodfox being the only one in the same position on both lists.  And really he has been the most effective player on the Jays so far this season.   I lean a little more to the Win Score as well because Cavel Witter is sort of the 6th man in that list and has been pretty effective for the most part minus the turnovers.  The +/- chart almost says that Cavel shouldn’t be playing as much as he does. And as I look at it a little more, I do start to realize how much Justin Carter is really making an impact for this team, though we don’t always notice that it is something different in his games whether it is rebounding, scoring or something else.  Justin hasn’t had a real consistent box score line, but it shows he has been quite a contributor to the Jay’s wins.

As far as the +/- chart goes, what that tells me is that you can sort of see when the same players are in the game at the same time–Kaleb Korver, Casey Harriman and Kenton Walker.  With how those numbers shake out, you sort of get the impression that those guys are in the game for about the same stretches.  I do think however that Casey Harriman has been pretty effective at times and the Win Score doesn’t really show it.  He does those things that don’t show up in the box score with some of his toughness.

So take it for what it is worth.  I would be interested to hear from others if some of those numbers from the Win Score accurately shows who the effective players have been for the Jays so far this season.  I think they stack up pretty accurately.  If you know me, I’ll probably now look at tonight’s game a little differently to see if it really does portray accurately.

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2 Responses to Player Effectiveness Midseason

  1. […] Jon Green @ 6:24 am Well I discoverd something interseting Sunday over on Bluejay Basketball, https://bluejaybasketball.wordpress.com/2009/01/06/player-effectiveness-midseason/, called the win score.  What is it?  A way of computing how much a player is contributing to the […]

  2. […] Score Update At the midway point of the season, I had posted win scores of the Jays to see how effective they were with the combination of all of their stats.  Here is […]

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