Win Score Update

At the midway point of the season, I had posted win scores of the Jays to see how effective they were with the combination of all of their stats.  Here is where things were as of January 6th just after the start of the conference season:

As of January 6th:

Woodfox,Booker….. 5.293241
Carter,Justin…… 4.226047
Stinnett,P’Allen… 3.764586
Lawson, Kenny 3.030263
Dotzler,Josh……. 2.984109
Witter,Cavel……. 1.893257
Walker,Kenton…… 1.831816
Korver,Kaleb……. 1.382203
Harriman,Casey….. 0.547159
Millard,Chad……. 0.397209
Young,Antoine…… 0.064661
Sitzmann,Dustin…. -0.21257

At that time, the starting 5 were obviously the group that produced the most wins.  Also as you can see, Booker Woodfox and Justin Carter were the most effective players on the court.

A month later, about 2/3 of the way through the conference season and about 2/3 through the regular season, here is how things have changed since then:

As of February 5th:

Woodfox,Booker….. 7.093434
Lawson, Kenny 6.273299
Dotzler,Josh……. 5.893614
Carter,Justin…… 5.878753
Stinnett,P’Allen… 3.454417
Walker,Kenton…… 3.295806
Harriman,Casey….. 3.08209
Witter,Cavel……. 1.566318
Young,Antoine…… 1.053316
Korver,Kaleb……. 0.945783
Millard,Chad……. 0.426636
Sitzmann,Dustin…. 0.011486

Boy, there is quite the change in this list.  Booker Woodfox still leads the way, but it is sort of telling me that some guys have really picked up their game.    Let’s look at the comparisons that stick out.  Some people are missing the contributions that some of these guys are making

Kenny Lawson–3.030263 to 6.273299.  As much grief as some people have given Kenny Lawson (including myself) about his game and how the fans wish he would do more, he actually has.  Kenny’s play has directly contributed to over 3 more wins in the 9 games played.  He has had a few standout games which reflect that including his games against Evansville and Bradley and then the rebounding effort against Missouri St.

Josh Dotzler–2.984109 to 5.893614.  Another player who has been questioned by fans has been as solid as ever like Kenny Lawson has contributed enough to this team to help generate almost 3 more wins as well.  A large part of his contributions has been his control of the ball and not committing turnovers.  Through January 6th, Josh had 3 games of 3 or more turnovers.  However, for the past month’s 9 games, Josh has only had one game with over one turnover.

Casey Harriman–0.547159 to 3.08209.  Casey has been the constant hard worker that has shown his toughness since conference play started.  He is getting quality minutes while on the floor.  His line@ Evansville spoke for itself with his season high 11 points (4-5 FG, 2-3 Three), 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 2 blocks in his 22 minutes of play.   Then he had a couple of key 3-pointers against Indiana St. which got the team going.

Kenton Walker–1.893257 to 3.08209.  Kenton has had some ups and downs during this past month, but his season high scoring game against Missouri St. and his 9 big rebounds against Southern Illinois were direct contributors to the wins against those teams.

Antoine Young–.064661o to 1.053316.  As you can tell, the expansion of Antoine’s playing time has helped improve his win score pretty nicely.  His energy off the bench has had some impact on a lot of games this month and as he is playing more, that impact helps produce wins.

The rest of the bunchCavel Witter has been the one to suffer the most from the increased playing time for Antoine Young.  His win score went down a little bit from 1.893257 to 1.566318.  That is evident in the way of his production this month.  He has definitely been struggling lately and has stunted his effectiveness.  Justin Carter has went down a little bit as well.  I’m kind of struggling with the reasoning on that especially since he has seemed to have some of his best games in about the last 5-6 games and has really become a leader.   The only thing I can seem to notice is that he has taken a lot more 3-point shots and shots in general since the conference season started and that is likely what affected his win score.   P’Allen Stinnett’s win score went down as well.  But that can be explained by all of the first half minutes he has played that he has been ineffective.  Though he has had big second halves of games lately, the ineffective first half stats doesn’t contribute to wins.  Kaleb Korver is suffering from a shooting slump shooting 6-26 since the New Year’s Eve Indiana St. game.  Though he is pretty consistent with his other stats including the rebounding, the shooting is a direct contributor to his lower win score.

What is interesting to note with all of this though is that with as many players contributing with 3 or more produced wins, this tells us that with team efforts, that is where the games are won.  As long as this team keeps playing together and they don’t rely on one player.   It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out at the end of the season.


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